davesaint86
725 posts
msg #153407
- Ignore davesaint86 |
8/4/2020 12:26:09 PM
Offset this filter at 189 days, which is when WIZ went live.
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davesaint86
725 posts
msg #153408
- Ignore davesaint86 |
8/4/2020 12:35:48 PM
With SwanGuard, WIZ would have moved to safe haven ETFs on February 26 and moved back to the 80/20 allocations on April 9th, which would have equated to a 35.15 YTD gain.
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graftonian
1,089 posts
msg #153411
- Ignore graftonian |
8/4/2020 1:08:26 PM
Dave,
Headed for the doctors office (again), I'd like to discuss this further
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dashover
224 posts
msg #153420
- Ignore dashover |
8/4/2020 5:28:26 PM
Can't I just buy ARKK or XLK or QQQ or FFTY with a put and mess with call spreads along the way to pay the put off ?
Limited downside and potentially the strongest stocks in the market?
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Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #153422
- Ignore Cheese
modified |
8/4/2020 8:41:46 PM
Just my 2 cents
1. There is also this concern that too many funds are holding and chasing the same narrow sets
of hot stocks.
2. The other risk is retaliation from China. I suspect few people still remember how vulnerable
US markets were to USD/CNH. Last year, as a trade negotiation ploy, China stopped supporting
the magic 7 level. USD/CNH rate rose above 7, US markets immediately dropped. and Secretary
Mnuchin had to plead with Vice Premier He.
A few years back, China pulled the same trick, and Mnuchin's predecessor also had to plead .
with China.
The rules of thumb are: if USDCNH goes to 7.15 to 7.35, the S&P will likely drop 15% while
Chinese markets would only drop 5%. China does not care about their stock market investors
as much as America cares about its 1%.
Part of the rise in US stocks is simply propped up by falling US dollar. There are few good
earnings, just a lot of stimulus.
Why is this important now? Because China will likely retaliate against some of Trump's policies
geared for re-election, when it hurts America most.
Putting these above 2 risks together, there are just too many bulltards on one side of the boat,
and there is really no place to hide.
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sandjco
648 posts
msg #153425
- Ignore sandjco |
8/4/2020 9:55:03 PM
gentlemen,
As always, thank you for the clarification and your continued kindness to help!
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nibor100
1,010 posts
msg #153432
- Ignore nibor100 |
8/5/2020 5:37:03 PM
@davesaint86,
the comment you have next to the symlist in the filter you posted seems to indicate that is a list of ETFs that WIZ held on 7/16/20.
Since WIZ normally only holds 8 ETFs in the Bull Market scenario I'm confused by your list.
Could it be that is a list of all of the different WIX holdings ETFs since its inception?
Thanks,
Ed S.
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nibor100
1,010 posts
msg #153433
- Ignore nibor100 |
8/5/2020 6:22:14 PM
@graftonian,
You've piqued my interest so I've been going down the WIZ rabbit hole this afternoon....I was initially thinking, great all I have to do is count how many ETFs WIZ is holding and I'll know if we are in a Bull market or a Bear market
1. I'd advise reading their prospectus because surprisingly it provides some clearer info than the Merlyn.ai WIZ website does, points that I found interesting are:
a. in Bull phase can have less than 8 ETFs
b. in Bear phase looking to have only 4 ETFs but can have more
c. Passively managed and generally is making changes only at end of months to determine whether next month should be Bull portfolio or Bear but explains that it can move to Bull at any time during a Bear portfolio month but doesn't seem to say the reverse???
d. Some detail on the logic they use to determine Bull market
2. Jun 26 they replaced the WIZ fund Portfolio Manager effective immediately.
3. Not sure their new "SwanGard" market crash identifier algorithm/methodology is any better than the one they were touting initially "StormGuard Armor". Curiously, its from a third different company founded by the same guy, Scott Juds.
4. He has written a book called the "Seven Faces of Risk" which I've bought a Nook version for $10.99 so I can read all about it!! Table of contents seems to indicate it covers a lot...You can actually buy a hard copy and follow the instructions on their website and he'll sign it for you.
5. The Factsheet PDF download available in the WiZ documents section is a bit interesting to look at also. and very short read
My 1 and half cents,
Ed S.
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davesaint86
725 posts
msg #153442
- Ignore davesaint86 |
8/6/2020 9:13:24 AM
Nibor - Sorry you bought the book. You can get if free here https://alphadroid.com/downloads/Conquering-The-Seven-Faces-of-Risk.pdf
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davesaint86
725 posts
msg #153443
- Ignore davesaint86 |
8/6/2020 9:36:06 AM
Nibor - You stated "the comment you have next to the symlist in the filter you posted seems to indicate that is a list of ETFs that WIZ held on 7/16/20." Do you have a message number I can reference? I do not know the post you are talking about. With that said, as far as I know, WIZ has not switched from bullish to bearish stance since inception. So technically, WIZ has been allocated to holding 6 Bullish ETFs and 2 bond ETFs. If SwanGuard would have been in play, WIZ would have gone to the bearish side. Have you looked at the data in the Monthly Spreadsheet on the site? Remember Merylyn publishes the ETFs 24 hours in advance so anyone could go on the site, look up the new allocations, and purchase the underlying ETFs if one chooses to do so instead of WIZ. You can buy and sell as you wish.
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