StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Short -Sell Filter<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 12 >>Post Follow-up
Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150208
Ignore Village Elder
1/9/2020 1:35:09 PM

I have been following some of the other trading threads here, and like how KSK8 will post his trades ahead of the open and report back the results - no BS, just transparent trades. For 2020 I thought I would share a filter that has done well for me over the last year.

THE FILTER TO BE TRADED
Fetcher[
close above 3
close above close 1 day ago
close * volume above 1000000
set{mass5, average volume(5) / average volume(50)}
set{new_momentum, ROC(5,1) * mass5}
draw roc(5,1) line at 50
add column new_momentum
add column roc(5,1)
sort on column 5 descending
roc(5,1) above 50
chart-time is 21 days
]



The typical result from this filter will collapse back below the close on the day of its signal, if not the next day it would be within a 2-3 day window. Most of the time the stock opens below the daily close and drops to a lower price by the end of the day.

Going forward I will post the results adhering to the following rules:

Overall:
The system will be based on an initial equity of $50,000. No trade can be larger than $10,000. All trades will be short selling the stock at the open of trading, and will assume that there are sufficient shares to short the stock.

For the purposes of this thread all trades are paper trades, and all trade results will be posted.

Entries:

1. ALL trades must be taken up to the limit of the initial equity. Trades are ranked so it will be clear which ones are being selected and why.
2. All trades are to be entered at the open of the day after the trade is signaled.
3. No compounding - trade size is capped at $10,000 (or smaller). If the trade size is any less than $10,000 I will indicate such and why that decision is being made.

Exits:

1. Profitable by end of day - trade is closed automatically.
2. ROC(5,1) closes below 50 - trade is closed automatically.
3. Trade goes more than three days - trade is closed automatically.
4. NO EXCEPTIONS TO ANY OF THE ABOVE RULES ALLOWED.

Will every trade be profitable? NO. No system can do that. What I hope for is a relatively good ROI with minimal drawdown, but no promises.

This is a read-only thread. If you want to discuss the results, have questions or feedback, it can be done in parallel but it is my plan to keep this more as a log of trading performance than as a discussion thread. There may be periods where I cannot update this due to work travel or other commitments, but I'll do my best and make are that the trade results are reported in as timely a manner as possible.

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150211
Ignore Village Elder
1/9/2020 3:30:13 PM

Trades that were opened today (based on yesterday's signals):

PIXY - short 568 shares at the open price of $17.59

SAVA - short 1,160 shares at the open price of $8.62

CEI - short 3,330 shares at the open price of $3.01

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150214
Ignore Village Elder
modified
1/9/2020 4:37:22 PM

PIXY - STO 568 shares at the open price of $17.59
Trade closed at end of day. BTC at $17.29 for a gain of $170.40

SAVA - STO 1,160 shares at the open price of $8.62
Trade closed at end of day. BTC at $7.93 for a gain of $800.40

CEI - STO 3,330 shares at the open price of $3.01
Trade closed at end of day. BTC at $2.70 for a gain of $1,015.65

Total gain of +$1986.45 or 6.62%.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

SYSTEM EQUITY AS OF 1/9/2020: $51,986.45

Trades for 1/10:

GENE, AGTC, AND APLT


Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150229
Ignore Village Elder
1/10/2020 9:56:40 AM

Trades that were opened today (based on yesterday's signals):

GENE - short 2,200 shares at the open price of $4.54

AGTC - short 1,160 shares at the open price of $8.60

APLT - short 230 shares at the open price of $43.28

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150240
Ignore Village Elder
1/10/2020 6:28:51 PM

GENE - short 2,200 shares at the open price of $4.54
Trade closed at end of day. BTC at $4.11 for a gain of $946.00

AGTC - short 1,160 shares at the open price of $8.60
Trade closed at end of day. BTC at $7.84 for a gain of $881.60

APLT - short 230 shares at the open price of $43.28
Trade closed at end of day. BTC at $40.56 for a gain of $625.60

Total gain of +$2,453.20 or 8.20%.


SYSTEM EQUITY AS OF 1/10/2020: $54,439.65 (+8.87%)

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150242
Ignore Village Elder
1/10/2020 6:38:07 PM

Based on KSK8's good suggestion, I am adding in a minimum market capitalization criterion of $10 MM. Not a high hurdle to clear for a decent stock. Note also that I am requiring a close above $3 to help minimize any impact of bid/ask spread.

Updated Filter:

Fetcher[
close above 3
close above close 1 day ago
close * volume above 1000000
set{mass5, average volume(5) / average volume(50)}
set{new_momentum, ROC(5,1) * mass5}
draw roc(5,1) line at 50
add column new_momentum
add column roc(5,1)
sort on column 5 descending
roc(5,1) above 50
market cap above 10
add column market cap
chart-time is 21 days
]



Trades for 1/13:

SEED, NLS, and LJPC.

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150288
Ignore Village Elder
1/13/2020 8:29:28 AM

Looks like CPAH made it onto the list over the weekend. Looking at it I am not in love with the single day big move (versus the several days move upward with a decreasing volume on the trigger day). But one of my rules for this were that all trades will be taken if there is sufficient equity, so I'll play it along with the others and see how it shakes out.

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150293
Ignore Village Elder
1/13/2020 10:13:52 AM

SEED - STO 1,040 shares at the open price of $9.58

NLS - STO 2,975 shares at the open price of $3.36

LJPC - STO 1,625 shares at the open price of $6.15

CPAH - STO 2,440 shares at the open price of $4.10

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150300
Ignore Village Elder
1/13/2020 5:39:34 PM

SEED - STO 1,040 shares at the open price of $9.58
Trade closed at end of day. BTC at $8.80 for a gain of $811.20 (+8.14%)

NLS - STO 2,975 shares at the open price of $3.36
Trade remains open. Based on rules, this trade will remain in play until either the ROC(5,1) crosses below 50 or after three market sessions (close of the trading session on 1/15). Have not backtested this last trigger but I don't want to keep money in any trade too long if it has not snapped back. The filter triggered for this stock again today, so I will hold the position.

LJPC - STO 1,625 shares at the open price of $6.15
Trade remains open. This trade will remain in play until either the ROC(5,1) crosses below 50 or after three market sessions (close of the trading session on 1/15). The filter triggered for this stock again today, so I will hold the position.

CPAH - STO 2,440 shares at the open price of $4.10
Trade closed at end of day. BTC at $3.37 for a gain of $1,781.20 (+17.80%)

Closed Trades: + $2,592.40 (+12.96%)
Open Trades:- $1,470.50 (-7.36%)

Village Elder
230 posts
msg #150313
Ignore Village Elder
1/14/2020 7:51:26 AM

Trades signaled for 1/14:

NLS and LJPC (holding from yesterday - in this case both were down but it is possible that both could be up from the open and still trigger for a second day. Not sure how I want to play that scenario ... either hold O/N or exit with a profit and re-enter at the open the next day?).

New trades are ADAP, BYND, and NK. I will put trades on all three new ones since I have the equity to do so and that is what the rules state.

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