15minoffame
131 posts
msg #139807
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/5/2017 12:09:06 AM
This is my 10th year trading options. I've learned to follow the money or in this case big options blocks, especially at the Ask or above. Unusual options volume work too. It's rare that a bet of over $1 million will go against you. Highest probabilities is if you can find a massive block buy at support. That's when the big boys and girls think the selling is basically done.
Legend: Symbol, Contracts, Expiration, Strike, Type, Trade Price, Premium
12/4/17
1) BAC, 49,365, 1/19/18 30 Call, $0.58, $2,863,170
2) V, 3850, 2/16/18 110 Call, $3.50, $1,347,500
3) V, 3137, 2/16/18 110 Call, $4.05, $1,270,490
4) KMX, 3933, 1/19/18 72.50 Call, $2.40, $943,920
5) CELG, 931, 3/16/18 100 Call, $9.00, $837,900
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #139809
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/5/2017 8:17:35 AM
Is there a way to differentiate between those who are buying calls and those who are selling them? That is all rolled up into the call "volume", right? Not all that knowledgeable about options.
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four
5,087 posts
msg #139810
- Ignore four
modified |
12/5/2017 8:26:22 AM
Which sites do you use to analyze and research options?
Thanks
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #139815
- Ignore johnpaulca |
12/5/2017 9:18:26 AM
This is very good option site I've used in the past;
https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #139835
- Ignore mahkoh |
12/5/2017 3:59:46 PM
Livevol claims to have info on whether options were bought or sold, but is not cheap. You can do some research on your own if you have access to time and sales data and bid/ask charts like IB has. If a block is sold at the ask it is probably a buy order and vice versa. However, if the order was placed at the midpoint you are in the dark.
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #139839
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/5/2017 7:28:37 PM
Mahkoh is correct. Livevol is popular in determining if it's a Buy or Sell but they're not cheap. Marketchameleon offers the same data for free, albeit with a 15-min delay. They offer a subscription base, but since I'm not a day trader, I don't have a need to pounce on the trade right away.
If a purchase is at the Ask or Above, then it's a buy. Better yet, if volume exceeds Open Interest, then a new position has been established. If it's at the Bid or below then the option is sold. This is also valuable since it's giving you a hint that the big players think a stock can no longer go above a price (Selling a Call) or below a price (Selling a Put).
Beginning option players should only buy options at least 3 months in advance to give you more time if the market goes against you. If you piggy back on big premium trades of $1 million or more, you'd be surprised how fast your account can grow as these plays have an 80% accuracy. I'd like these plays and blocks of 3000 or more at support, especially on beaten down stocks. These almost have a 100% accuracy as you only need the stock to move 2-3% in order for your option price to double.
Caveat: In a sideways, fade every pop market like we've experienced lately, patience is the key! The big players can afford to have the option price drop because they have plenty of ammo left to average down.The average Joe won't have such luxury so you need to WAIT for SPY to start going up again. Keep an Excel log of all the big buys and when you see the market is back to an uptrend, buy hand over fist on those now cheap Calls!
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #139845
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/5/2017 9:38:00 PM
Spotlight Trade of the Day!
An investor thinks something wicked this way comes as they bought $10 million in QQQ premiums of the 6/15/18 134 Puts at $2.57. This is one of the largest straight up options trades I've seen. Break even is $131.43 so QQQ needs to drop 13.99% from now until expiration. If true, bulls will not be enjoying the Year of the Dog.
Remaining 4 big options plays today:
Legend: Premium, Symbol, Contracts, Expiration Date/Strike/Type, Trade Price
1) $2,608,900, QQQ, 2752, 9/21/18 154 Put, $9.48
2) $2,250,000, XRT, 22,500, 12/29/17 44 Call, $1.00
3) $1,732,730, SPY, 2775, 2/16/18 265 Put, $4.59
4) $1,499,400, XLF, 35,700, 12/29/17 28 Call, $0.42
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tennisplayer2
210 posts
msg #139846
- Ignore tennisplayer2
modified |
12/5/2017 10:25:57 PM
15minoffame, where do you see the big trades on market chameleon? Thanks.
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15minoffame
131 posts
msg #139847
- Ignore 15minoffame |
12/5/2017 11:16:04 PM
It's under the tab "Screeners" at the top menu line, then "Option Trades." My personal preference for the filter categories: Trade Filter (Over 500), Trade Price (Over .25), Stock Type (Common), Side (Ask & Above). To be on the safe side that these are open positions choose Trade Qty vs Open Int (Qty > OI). Choosing this will drop the results dramatically BUT the probabilities are much higher since this is a new open position.
HTH
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tennisplayer2
210 posts
msg #139851
- Ignore tennisplayer2 |
12/6/2017 1:55:04 AM
15minoffame, thanks.
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