At any rate, there are many ways to minimize ure losses. Obviously, the best way to cut ure losses is to sell the loser outright. But if ure a proud member from the land of the timid (no offense meant), then you can hedge ure position by either buying the option or, should you have enough capital, pair-trade. Both of these strategies have their pros and cons. Whereas options only require a small premium (depending on the contract size), pair-trading requires a substantial sum of money. However, with pair-trading, you need not worry about losing the premium due to time decay as you would with options.
you're right about the options ....
I realize I should've hedged such a huge bet with options, but my ARROGANCE prevented me from doing so.
I was so "sure" of what I was doing.
I had a cruise planned and everything.
This is how I lose money .. overconfidence, hubris.
Three weeks ago, I was on top of the world.
Now I feel like the dumbest person in the world.
:>(
johnpaulca
- johnpaulca 5/2/2008 10:59:38 AM
I don't think it will stay under 20 for much longer.
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Regarding the $VIX
It's @ 18 now.
The lowest it's been in the last ten years was 10.
That was January '07.
In that case, the DOW could rally to 15,000.
The 2 Period Relative Strength Index (RSI). This was the 3rd week in a row the 2 Period RSI has closed below the 20 level (point D). The last time the VIX closed three weeks in a row below the 20 level was in October of 2007 (point E) right before a correction developed (points F to G). Thus this is one reason I believe the major averages are nearing a short term top although they may still have one more up week before a correction develops.
JP, Nice analysis. Although I don't follow VIX personally, it's a convincing argument nonetheless. Another reason for a reversal is that $SPX is nearing its 200-day moving average, which will be fought tooth and nail by the bears. This would be like ure wrestlemania cage of death match.
Karen, we haven't even gone through a capitulation process. If you revisit every one of them bear markets in the past, you'll notice a period of long drawn-out capitulation before it was able to pick its ass up. I haven't seen that yet, have you?
johnpaulca
johnpaulca 5/4/2008 12:58:05 AM
Amateur-Investors:
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"Amateur-Investors"...???
Thanks, John.
I guess you HAD to put that there .. to make me feel better?
It must be very gratifying for "pros" like you to kick a gal in the face when she's already down.
I'd already learned my lesson, but thanks for the reinforcement.
Karennma:
"Amateur-Investors" is the name of a newsletter...I don't judge people because we "all" make trades we are not so proud of...you will get your groove back...cheers.
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