BarTune1
441 posts
msg #82939
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/12/2009 2:53:51 PM
I just covered my short on LMT at a slight profit.
Consider shorting WYNN - very overbought here.
There was non available with my broker so I purchased some UWY JAN 65 PUTS at 4.85.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #82943
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
11/12/2009 4:05:46 PM
TZA behaving very nicely today (+6.2%), although all of my 3x Bears have recovered and are profitable right now.
I'll hold these through tomorrow - statistics argue that, of the last 12 times the VIX has closed up two days in a row, the SPX on the following day has dropped by another -0.43%.
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stratiG
147 posts
msg #82946
- Ignore stratiG
modified |
11/12/2009 4:36:51 PM
Kevin,
you might like this blog
http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2009/11/vix-rises-as-spx-hits-new-high.html
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #82953
- Ignore BarTune1 |
11/12/2009 6:51:03 PM
Well Kevin, I got out of about 1/2 my SDS position at 37.30 and 37.40 around 3:57 pm when it was slightly above its 5 dma of 37.28. Dont know if it was the right decision or not. Will tell you tomorrow.
Took a loss on the SDS as, in hindsight, I got in too early. I didn't properly scale in and took a huge position Monday.
My SKF is at 24.58 whereas the 5 dma is at 24.60.
I hope you are right about tomorrow being a down day.
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trendscanner
265 posts
msg #82956
- Ignore trendscanner |
11/12/2009 7:51:11 PM
tmanbone - thanks for the Amazon link. The Conners ETF book was on sale at the TradingMarkets site for $39.95, plus they offer a downloadable version for no extra charge, so I bought it there. Have downloaded and looked through it briefly but haven't read it in detail yet.
Surprised to see a few rsi2 strategies in the book. He calls it "2 period rsi" but its the same thing. Small world.....
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tmanbone
124 posts
msg #83034
- Ignore tmanbone |
11/13/2009 7:49:38 PM
trendscanner, great, you found a good deal on the books; I've always liked Amazon because they deal in used books and you can find decent deals instead of buying new. I'll have to check out the trading markets site. Thanks
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83036
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/13/2009 8:20:48 PM
BarTune1
11/12/2009 6:51:03 PM
Well Kevin, I got out of about 1/2 my SDS position at 37.30 and 37.40 around 3:57 pm when it was slightly above its 5 dma of 37.28. Dont know if it was the right decision or not. Will tell you tomorrow.
Took a loss on the SDS as, in hindsight, I got in too early. I didn't properly scale in and took a huge position Monday.
My SKF is at 24.58 whereas the 5 dma is at 24.60.
I hope you are right about tomorrow being a down day.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Well, not the right call on the SPX today - statistically it had an edge to be down, but not enough I guess.
I had put in limit orders to buy more of my 3x bears if the price got to a critical level (about 1100 on the ^SPX), but they didn't fill. I guess that's OK, since I am only down less than 2% right now. No real reason to average down just yet.
I am a little concerned about options expiration week (next week). The market has relentlessly moved forward during OpEx recently. Fingers crossed.
HEY, you're SKF didn't move a penny!! What are the odds of that??
Kevin
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83043
- Ignore BarTune1
modified |
11/13/2009 10:45:00 PM
Kevin, I tried to get out of my SKF around 24.80 and change but missed it ..... I ended up adding a number of short positions today actually ..... hi RSI(2) stocks like more WYNN, CAH, HBC, AMZN & MSFT .... pretty much sold them all near their tops today ..... I'm scaling in so there is not too much risk in my view ....
I realize options expiry week has been very positive the last couple months but I am having difficulty seeing the market advance much further in the short term given the run-up this month ....... and last month and the month before etc.
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drew9
171 posts
msg #83083
- Ignore drew9 |
11/14/2009 9:00:02 PM
The blog above was quite insightful. If you go and change Chetron's filter that Trendscanner posted to reflect 10% bands around the VIX moving average it really is quite dead on - particularly for determining bottoms. Just wait for it to kick above plus 10% and when it turns down you have your confirmation. Nice work!
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #83093
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
11/15/2009 10:59:46 AM
Here are two quick charts that might be of interest:
^SPX with Bollinger Bands and Stochastics
^VIX with Bollinger Bands and Stochastics
Note that these stochastics settings do a pretty good job of catching the highs and lows. Also indicates that we are probably in for a reversal and downturn in the SPX this week (unless the dollar totally craps out).
Kevin
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