taylorsk
106 posts
msg #100848
- Ignore taylorsk |
5/22/2011 10:40:27 AM
Small sample size, but an interesting set up from Friday.
On thursday we had a small kangaroo tail below the 25EMA on the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.
Friday we opened lower and closed lower.
This setup(- the days of the week) has happened 11 distinct times since Jan 1. 2002.
Of those the following stats are true
6 gap downs. Of those 4 closed higher and 5 of 6 filled the gap.
5 gap ups of those 4 closed higher and only 2 filled the gap.
Bias appears to be to the long side.
Fading gap downs has a higher probability, while fading gap ups is riskier.
Again 11 instances is a very small sample size so use stats with care and at your own risk.
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